Jason Spitz
G, Louisville · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #75 (GNB)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #113 (#4 at his position); he went #75, 38 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Louisville: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.40 40-yard dash at 313 lbs: faster than 11% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 75 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2011 (~78%). Last NFL season: 2011.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 75 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 24 |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 313 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.40 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 28.5" |
| Broad jump | 102" |
| 3-cone | 7.82 s |
| Shuttle | 4.55 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #113 overall (#4 G) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 72 | Leonard Pope | redraft #147 |
| 73 | Dusty Dvoracek | redraft #146 |
| 74 | Brian Calhoun | redraft #188 |
| 76 | Anthony Schlegel | redraft #181 |
| 77 | Jon Alston | redraft #160 |
| 78 | Travis Wilson | redraft #212 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.