Dusty Dvoracek
DT, Oklahoma · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #73 (CHI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
25 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 13 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2008 (~27%). Last NFL season: 2008.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #100 (#11 at his position), close to where he went (#73).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.01 40-yard dash at 306 lbs: faster than 33% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 13 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| Defense | 24 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2008 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 306 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.01 s |
| Bench press | 31 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| 3-cone | 7.62 s |
| Shuttle | 4.35 s |
| Age at draft | 25 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #100 overall (#11 DT) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 70 | Ashton Youboty | redraft #134 |
| 71 | Chris Gocong | redraft #75 |
| 72 | Leonard Pope | redraft #147 |
| 74 | Brian Calhoun | redraft #188 |
| 75 | Jason Spitz | redraft #82 |
| 76 | Anthony Schlegel | redraft #181 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.