Jared Allen
DE, Idaho St. · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #126 (KAN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 187 of ~192 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2015 (~97%). Last NFL season: 2015.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #209 (#21 at his position); he went #126, 83 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Idaho St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.72 40-yard dash at 265 lbs: faster than 81% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 187 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 12 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 4 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 101 |
| Receiving | 2 rec, 3 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 503 tackles, 136 sacks, 6 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 265 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.72 s |
| Bench press | 13 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 7.11 s |
| Shuttle | 4.34 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #209 overall (#21 DE) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 123 | Stacy Andrews | redraft #77 |
| 124 | Michael Waddell | redraft #141 |
| 125 | Jason David | redraft #73 |
| 127 | Richard Seigler | redraft #204 |
| 128 | Cedric Cobbs | redraft #210 |
| 129 | J.R. Reed | redraft #154 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.