Jamil Douglas
G, Arizona St. · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #114 (MIA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #194 (#13 at his position); he went #114, 80 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 50 of ~113 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2021 (~44%). Last NFL season: 2021.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arizona St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.25 40-yard dash at 304 lbs: faster than 41% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 50 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 7 |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 304 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.25 s |
| Bench press | 28 reps |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 99" |
| 3-cone | 7.99 s |
| Shuttle | 4.75 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #194 overall (#13 G) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 111 | Tre' Jackson | redraft #139 |
| 112 | Arie Kouandjio | redraft #156 |
| 113 | Gabe Wright | redraft #189 |
| 115 | Ibraheim Campbell | redraft #140 |
| 116 | Rodney Gunter | redraft #85 |
| 117 | Blake Bell | redraft #147 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.