Blake Bell
TE, Oklahoma · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #117 (SFO)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, age, position. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #191 (#12 at his position); he went #117, 74 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.80 40-yard dash at 252 lbs: faster than 26% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 117 of ~147 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2023 (~80%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 117 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Rushing | 5 att, 12 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 65 rec, 667 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 7 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 252 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.80 s |
| Bench press | 14 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| 3-cone | 6.85 s |
| Shuttle | 4.32 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #191 overall (#12 TE) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 114 | Jamil Douglas | redraft #133 |
| 115 | Ibraheim Campbell | redraft #140 |
| 116 | Rodney Gunter | redraft #85 |
| 118 | Ramik Wilson | redraft #100 |
| 119 | Andrew Donnal | redraft #161 |
| 120 | Josh Shaw | redraft #124 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.