Jake Haener
QB, Fresno St. · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #127 (NOR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 8 of ~34 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2024 (~24%). Last NFL season: 2024.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #92 overall (#6 at his position), but he lasted until pick #127: teams let him slide 35 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Fresno St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 8 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.0 |
| Passing | 18/39, 226 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT |
| Rushing | 11 att, 22 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 207 lbs |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 114" |
| 3-cone | 7.01 s |
| Arm / hand | 29.75" / 9.38" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #92 overall (#6 QB) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 124 | Tavius Robinson | redraft #79 |
| 125 | Derius Davis | redraft #159 |
| 126 | Isaiah McGuire | redraft #96 |
| 128 | Stetson Bennett | redraft #227 |
| 129 | Viliami Fehoko | redraft #228 |
| 130 | Tyler Lacy | redraft #114 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.