Derius Davis
WR, TCU · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #125 (LAC)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #268 (#34 at his position); he went #125, 143 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
TCU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.36 40-yard dash at 165 lbs: faster than 87% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 43 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~84%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 49 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 3.3 |
| Rushing | 29 att, 149 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 31 rec, 194 yds, 2 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 8", 165 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.36 s |
| Shuttle | 4.38 s |
| Arm / hand | 29.25" / 8" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #268 overall (#34 WR) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 122 | Jon Gaines | redraft #134 |
| 123 | Cameron Young | redraft #207 |
| 124 | Tavius Robinson | redraft #79 |
| 126 | Isaiah McGuire | redraft #96 |
| 127 | Jake Haener | redraft #214 |
| 128 | Stetson Bennett | redraft #227 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.