Jake Ferguson
TE, Wisconsin · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #129 (DAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Availability
Played 64 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~94%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #176 (#10 at his position); he went #129, 47 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wisconsin: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.81 40-yard dash at 250 lbs: faster than 23% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 70 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 19 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 20.9 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 1 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 248 rec, 2,144 yds, 18 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 250 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.81 s |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 7.03 s |
| Shuttle | 4.48 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.63" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #176 overall (#10 TE) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 126 | Neil Farrell | redraft #208 |
| 127 | Pierre Strong | redraft #162 |
| 128 | Charlie Kolar | redraft #153 |
| 130 | Jordan Stout | redraft #129 |
| 131 | Hassan Haskins | redraft #204 |
| 132 | Romeo Doubs | redraft #40 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.