Jace Sternberger
TE, Texas A&M · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #75 (GNB)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 18 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2020 (~56%). Last NFL season: 2020.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #71 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#75).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas A&M: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.75 40-yard dash at 251 lbs: faster than 42% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 18 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.0 |
| Receiving | 12 rec, 114 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 251 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.75 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 7.19 s |
| Shuttle | 4.31 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.13" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #71 overall (#4 TE) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 72 | Germaine Pratt | redraft #23 |
| 73 | David Montgomery | redraft #18 |
| 74 | Devin Singletary | redraft #32 |
| 76 | Terry McLaurin | redraft #14 |
| 77 | Chase Winovich | redraft #115 |
| 78 | Michael Deiter | redraft #98 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.