Chase Winovich
DE, Michigan · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #77 (NWE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #44 overall (#6 at his position), but he lasted until pick #77: teams let him slide 33 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Michigan: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.59 40-yard dash at 256 lbs: faster than 95% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 56 of ~83 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2023 (~67%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 56 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 11 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 11.0 |
| Defense | 71 tackles, 12 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 256 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.59 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 30.5" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| 3-cone | 6.94 s |
| Shuttle | 4.11 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.75" / 9.88" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #44 overall (#6 DE) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 74 | Devin Singletary | redraft #32 |
| 75 | Jace Sternberger | redraft #195 |
| 76 | Terry McLaurin | redraft #14 |
| 78 | Michael Deiter | redraft #98 |
| 79 | David Long | redraft #137 |
| 80 | Sione Takitaki | redraft #82 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.