Eric Murray
CB, Minnesota · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #106 (KAN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #108 (#14 at his position), close to where he went (#106). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Minnesota: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.49 40-yard dash at 199 lbs: faster than 48% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
CB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 136 of ~165 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2025 (~82%). Plus 5 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 141 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 25 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 26.9 |
| Defense | 311 tackles, 6 sacks, 4 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 199 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.49 s |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 39.5" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| 3-cone | 7.08 s |
| Shuttle | 4.05 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.75" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #108 overall (#14 CB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 103 | Sheldon Day | redraft #131 |
| 104 | Tavon Young | redraft #101 |
| 105 | Parker Ehinger | redraft #170 |
| 107 | Chris Moore | redraft #99 |
| 108 | Ryan Smith | redraft #132 |
| 109 | B.J. Goodson | redraft #85 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.