Drew Lock
QB, Missouri · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #42 (DEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 41 of ~117 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2025 (~35%). Plus 2 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #24 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#42).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Missouri: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.69 40-yard dash at 228 lbs: faster than 74% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 43 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 14 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 14.9 |
| Passing | 613/1018, 6,791 yds, 38 TD, 28 INT |
| Rushing | 103 att, 440 yds, 7 TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, 1 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 228 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.69 s |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 112" |
| 3-cone | 7.03 s |
| Shuttle | 4.12 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.63" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #24 overall (#3 QB) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 39 | Sean Murphy-Bunting | redraft #71 |
| 40 | Trayvon Mullen | redraft #114 |
| 41 | Dalton Risner | redraft #49 |
| 43 | Jahlani Tavai | redraft #45 |
| 44 | Elgton Jenkins | redraft #17 |
| 45 | Joejuan Williams | redraft #173 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.