Dalton Risner
T, Kansas St. · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #41 (DEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 100 of ~117 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2025 (~85%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #46 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#41).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Kansas St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.30 40-yard dash at 312 lbs: faster than 28% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 106 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 30 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 32.7 |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 312 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.30 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 28.5" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| 3-cone | 7.69 s |
| Shuttle | 4.52 s |
| Arm / hand | 34" / 10.63" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #46 overall (#5 T) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 38 | Cody Ford | redraft #76 |
| 39 | Sean Murphy-Bunting | redraft #71 |
| 40 | Trayvon Mullen | redraft #114 |
| 42 | Drew Lock | redraft #100 |
| 43 | Jahlani Tavai | redraft #45 |
| 44 | Elgton Jenkins | redraft #17 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.