Donald Brown
RB, Connecticut · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #27 (IND)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #30 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#27).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Connecticut: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at 210 lbs: faster than 72% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 89 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2015 (~79%). Last NFL season: 2015.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 89 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 25 |
| Rushing | 695 att, 2,829 yds, 18 TD |
| Receiving | 120 rec, 1,066 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 9 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 210 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46 s |
| Vertical | 41.5" |
| Broad jump | 125" |
| 3-cone | 6.93 s |
| Shuttle | 4.1 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #30 overall (#3 RB) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 24 | Peria Jerry | redraft #101 |
| 25 | Vontae Davis | redraft #26 |
| 26 | Clay Matthews | redraft #4 |
| 28 | Eric Wood | redraft #23 |
| 29 | Hakeem Nicks | redraft #31 |
| 30 | Kenny Britt | redraft #41 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.