Clay Matthews
LB, USC · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #26 (GNB)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 156 of ~176 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2019 (~89%). Last NFL season: 2019.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #21 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#26). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.58 40-yard dash at 240 lbs: faster than 74% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 156 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 10 |
| Pro Bowls | 6 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 77 |
| Defense | 383 tackles, 91.5 sacks, 6 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 240 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.58 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 6.9 s |
| Shuttle | 4.18 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #21 overall (#3 LB) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 23 | Michael Oher | redraft #29 |
| 24 | Peria Jerry | redraft #101 |
| 25 | Vontae Davis | redraft #26 |
| 27 | Donald Brown | redraft #64 |
| 28 | Eric Wood | redraft #23 |
| 29 | Hakeem Nicks | redraft #31 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.