Desmond Ridder
QB, Cincinnati · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #74 (ATL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #43 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#74).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Cincinnati: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at 211 lbs: faster than 95% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 25 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2024 (~49%). Last NFL season: 2024.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 25 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 13 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 13.0 |
| Passing | 374/588, 4,002 yds, 16 TD, 14 INT |
| Rushing | 78 att, 293 yds, 5 TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, -6 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 211 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.52 s |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 127" |
| 3-cone | 7.15 s |
| Shuttle | 4.29 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.88" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #43 overall (#3 QB) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 71 | Velus Jones Jr. | redraft #173 |
| 72 | Abraham Lucas | redraft #34 |
| 73 | Jelani Woods | redraft #186 |
| 75 | Christian Harris | redraft #88 |
| 76 | Travis Jones | redraft #75 |
| 77 | Bernhard Raimann | redraft #27 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.