Abraham Lucas
OL, Washington St. · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #72 (SEA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Position
OL (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #60 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#72). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Washington St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.92 40-yard dash at 315 lbs: faster than 96% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 45 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~66%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 52 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 23 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 3.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 26.2 |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 315 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.92 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 27" |
| Broad jump | 107" |
| 3-cone | 7.25 s |
| Shuttle | 4.4 s |
| Arm / hand | 34" / 10.63" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #60 overall (#7 OL) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 69 | Nicholas Petit-Frere | redraft #112 |
| 70 | Chad Muma | redraft #144 |
| 71 | Velus Jones Jr. | redraft #173 |
| 73 | Jelani Woods | redraft #186 |
| 74 | Desmond Ridder | redraft #97 |
| 75 | Christian Harris | redraft #88 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.