Derek Stingley Jr.
CB, LSU · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #3 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #8 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#3).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
CB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 53 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~78%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 60 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 2 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 36 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 3.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 39.1 |
| Defense | 138 tackles, 1 sacks, 15 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 190 lbs |
| Arm / hand | 30.63" / 9.38" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #8 overall (#2 CB) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 1 | Travon Walker | redraft #25 |
| 2 | Aidan Hutchinson | redraft #13 |
| 4 | Sauce Gardner | redraft #7 |
| 5 | Kayvon Thibodeaux | redraft #33 |
| 6 | Ikem Ekwonu | redraft #38 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.