Aidan Hutchinson
DE, Michigan · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #2 (DET)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #1 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#2).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Michigan: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.74 40-yard dash at 260 lbs: faster than 79% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 55 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~81%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 61 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 31 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.4 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 33.4 |
| Defense | 126 tackles, 47 sacks, 5 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 260 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.74 s |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 6.73 s |
| Shuttle | 4.15 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #1 overall (#1 DE) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 1 | Travon Walker | redraft #25 |
| 3 | Derek Stingley Jr. | redraft #3 |
| 4 | Sauce Gardner | redraft #7 |
| 5 | Kayvon Thibodeaux | redraft #33 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.