Dennis Pitta
TE, BYU · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #114 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #66 overall (#3 at his position), but he lasted until pick #114: teams let him slide 48 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
25 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
BYU: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.68 40-yard dash at 245 lbs: faster than 64% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 66 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2016 (~59%). Last NFL season: 2016.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 66 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 16 |
| Receiving | 224 rec, 2,098 yds, 13 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 245 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.68 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 6.72 s |
| Shuttle | 4.17 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.2" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 25 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #66 overall (#3 TE) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 111 | Walter Thurmond | redraft #111 |
| 112 | Joe McKnight | redraft #135 |
| 113 | Aaron Hernandez | redraft #77 |
| 115 | Phillip Dillard | redraft #219 |
| 116 | Thaddeus Gibson | redraft #223 |
| 117 | Joe Hawley | redraft #65 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.