Darian Kinnard
T, Kentucky · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #145 (KAN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Availability
Played 20 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~29%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #111 overall (#6 at his position), but he lasted until pick #145: teams let him slide 34 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Kentucky: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.31 40-yard dash at 322 lbs: faster than 26% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 20 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 3.0 |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 322 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.31 s |
| Vertical | 25" |
| Broad jump | 99" |
| 3-cone | 8.11 s |
| Shuttle | 4.96 s |
| Arm / hand | 35.25" / 11.25" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #111 overall (#6 T) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 142 | Cobie Durant | redraft #76 |
| 143 | Chig Okonkwo | redraft #73 |
| 144 | Sam Howell | redraft #105 |
| 146 | Micah McFadden | redraft #67 |
| 147 | DJ Davidson | redraft #156 |
| 148 | Khalil Shakir | redraft #30 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.