Danny Watkins
G, Baylor · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #23 (PHI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
26 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 24 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2013 (~50%). Last NFL season: 2013.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #29 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#23).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Baylor: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.36 40-yard dash at 310 lbs: faster than 17% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 24 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 310 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.36 s |
| Bench press | 29 reps |
| Vertical | 26" |
| Broad jump | 92" |
| 3-cone | 7.61 s |
| Shuttle | 4.62 s |
| Arm / hand | 34.2" / 10.1" |
| Age at draft | 26 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #29 overall (#1 G) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 20 | Adrian Clayborn | redraft #60 |
| 21 | Phil Taylor | redraft #76 |
| 22 | Anthony Castonzo | redraft #24 |
| 24 | Cameron Jordan | redraft #4 |
| 25 | James Carpenter | redraft #29 |
| 26 | Jonathan Baldwin | redraft #152 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.