Daniel Jones
QB, Duke · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #6 (NYG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #59 (#6 at his position); he went #6, 53 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Duke: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.81 40-yard dash at 221 lbs: faster than 48% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 82 of ~117 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2025 (~70%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 89 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 52 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 3.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 55.2 |
| Passing | 1828/2843, 18,973 yds, 93 TD, 61 INT |
| Rushing | 461 att, 2,398 yds, 21 TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, 16 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 221 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.81 s |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 7 s |
| Shuttle | 4.41 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.5" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #59 overall (#6 QB) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 3 | Quinnen Williams | redraft #6 |
| 4 | Clelin Ferrell | redraft #68 |
| 5 | Devin White | redraft #16 |
| 7 | Josh Hines-Allen | redraft #21 |
| 8 | T.J. Hockenson | redraft #43 |
| 9 | Ed Oliver | redraft #27 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.