Dane Belton
DB, Iowa · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #114 (NYG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 65 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~96%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #181 (#14 at his position); he went #114, 67 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Iowa: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at 205 lbs: faster than 73% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 72 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 10 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 3.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 13.2 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 10 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 157 tackles, 5 sacks, 6 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 205 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.43 s |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 123" |
| 3-cone | 7.01 s |
| Shuttle | 4.24 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.25" / 9.13" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #181 overall (#14 DB) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 111 | Max Mitchell | redraft #138 |
| 112 | Daniel Bellinger | redraft #116 |
| 113 | Percy Butler | redraft #136 |
| 115 | Damarri Mathis | redraft #139 |
| 116 | Eyioma Uwazurike | redraft #161 |
| 117 | Micheal Clemons | redraft #94 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.