Courtney Roby
WR, Indiana · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #68 (TEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 92 of ~160 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2014 (~58%). Last NFL season: 2014.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #84 (#13 at his position), close to where he went (#68).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Indiana: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.41 40-yard dash at 189 lbs: faster than 74% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 92 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Rushing | 3 att, 19 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 26 rec, 343 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 45 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 189 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.41 s |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 126" |
| 3-cone | 6.6 s |
| Shuttle | 3.94 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #84 overall (#13 WR) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 65 | Frank Gore | redraft #5 |
| 66 | O.J. Atogwe | redraft #55 |
| 67 | Charlie Frye | redraft #129 |
| 69 | Andrew Walter | redraft #183 |
| 70 | Channing Crowder | redraft #59 |
| 71 | Alex Smith | redraft #115 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.