Chris Davis
WR, Florida St. · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #128 (TEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 17 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2008 (~53%). Last NFL season: 2008.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #149 (#19 at his position), close to where he went (#128).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at 181 lbs: faster than 37% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 17 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Rushing | 2 att, 19 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 7 rec, 69 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2008 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 181 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.50 s |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 6.66 s |
| Shuttle | 4.14 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #149 overall (#19 WR) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 125 | Jermon Bushrod | redraft #15 |
| 126 | Dashon Goldson | redraft #35 |
| 127 | Kareem Brown | redraft #225 |
| 129 | Scott Chandler | redraft #77 |
| 130 | Josh Beekman | redraft #115 |
| 131 | Brannon Condren | redraft #195 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.