Casey Toohill
DE, Stanford · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #233 (PHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 71 of ~84 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2024 (~85%). Last NFL season: 2024.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #283 (#26 at his position); he went #233, 50 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Stanford: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.62 40-yard dash at 250 lbs: faster than 93% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 71 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 11 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 11.0 |
| Defense | 55 tackles, 8 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 250 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.62 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 39" |
| Broad jump | 126" |
| 3-cone | 7.08 s |
| Shuttle | 4.21 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.5" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #283 overall (#26 DE) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 230 | Dustin Woodard | redraft #253 |
| 231 | Ben DiNucci | redraft #221 |
| 232 | Carlos Davis | redraft #215 |
| 234 | Clay Johnston | redraft #205 |
| 235 | Jashon Cornell | redraft #245 |
| 236 | Vernon Scott | redraft #209 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.