Carlos Davis
DT, Nebraska · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #232 (PIT)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 12 of ~50 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2022 (~24%). Last NFL season: 2022.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #206 (#16 at his position), close to where he went (#232).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Nebraska: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.82 40-yard dash at 313 lbs: faster than 65% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 12 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.0 |
| Defense | 8 tackles, 1 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 313 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.82 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Shuttle | 4.52 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.25" / 9.88" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #206 overall (#16 DT) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 229 | James Smith-Williams | redraft #95 |
| 230 | Dustin Woodard | redraft #253 |
| 231 | Ben DiNucci | redraft #221 |
| 233 | Casey Toohill | redraft #116 |
| 234 | Clay Johnston | redraft #205 |
| 235 | Jashon Cornell | redraft #245 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.