Carlos Rogers
DB, Auburn · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #9 (WAS)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #19 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#9).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Auburn: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.44 40-yard dash at 196 lbs: faster than 69% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 133 of ~160 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2014 (~83%). Last NFL season: 2014.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 133 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 47 |
| Defense | 415 tackles, 1 sacks, 17 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 196 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.44 s |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 40.5" |
| Broad jump | 126" |
| 3-cone | 6.48 s |
| Shuttle | 3.82 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #19 overall (#3 DB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 6 | Adam Jones | redraft #22 |
| 7 | Troy Williamson | redraft #127 |
| 8 | Antrel Rolle | redraft #17 |
| 10 | Mike Williams | redraft #110 |
| 11 | DeMarcus Ware | redraft #3 |
| 12 | Shawne Merriman | redraft #39 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.