Adam Jones
DB, West Virginia · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #6 (TEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #5 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#6).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
West Virginia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at 187 lbs: faster than 87% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 146 of ~224 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2018 (~65%). Last NFL season: 2018.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 146 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 50 |
| Rushing | 2 att, 8 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 2 rec, 31 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 421 tackles, 3 sacks, 17 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 187 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.38 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #5 overall (#1 DB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 3 | Braylon Edwards | redraft #37 |
| 4 | Cedric Benson | redraft #53 |
| 5 | Cadillac Williams | redraft #62 |
| 7 | Troy Williamson | redraft #127 |
| 8 | Antrel Rolle | redraft #17 |
| 9 | Carlos Rogers | redraft #30 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.