Caraun Reid
DT, Princeton · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #158 (DET)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #84 overall (#8 at his position), but he lasted until pick #158: teams let him slide 74 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Princeton: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.91 40-yard dash at 302 lbs: faster than 49% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 55 of ~129 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2021 (~43%). Last NFL season: 2021.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 55 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| Defense | 38 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 302 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.91 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 26.5" |
| Broad jump | 106" |
| 3-cone | 7.59 s |
| Shuttle | 4.58 s |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 10.4" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #84 overall (#8 DT) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 155 | Arthur Lynch | redraft #231 |
| 156 | Lamin Barrow | redraft #184 |
| 157 | Shaquille Richardson | redraft #232 |
| 159 | Chris Smith | redraft #127 |
| 160 | Ed Stinson | redraft #148 |
| 161 | Corey Linsley | redraft #13 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.