Arthur Lynch
TE, Georgia · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #155 (MIA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, age, position, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #218 (#11 at his position); he went #155, 63 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Never played a regular-season NFL game.
- School
Georgia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.82 40-yard dash at 258 lbs: faster than 21% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 0 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Last NFL season | Never played |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 258 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.82 s |
| Bench press | 28 reps |
| Vertical | 29.5" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| 3-cone | 7.38 s |
| Shuttle | 4.35 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.4" / 10.1" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #218 overall (#11 TE) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 152 | Nat Berhe | redraft #163 |
| 153 | Cyril Richardson | redraft #183 |
| 154 | Jeremiah George | redraft #170 |
| 156 | Lamin Barrow | redraft #184 |
| 157 | Shaquille Richardson | redraft #232 |
| 158 | Caraun Reid | redraft #119 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.