Brandon Williams
DT, Missouri Southern · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #94 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #65 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#94). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Missouri Southern: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.37 40-yard dash at 335 lbs: faster than 2% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 128 of ~162 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2022 (~79%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 128 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 52 |
| Defense | 184 tackles, 7 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 335 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.37 s |
| Bench press | 38 reps |
| Vertical | 29.5" |
| Broad jump | 102" |
| 3-cone | 8.09 s |
| Shuttle | 4.91 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.5" / 9.6" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #65 overall (#8 DT) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 91 | Duron Harmon | redraft #51 |
| 92 | Stedman Bailey | redraft #140 |
| 93 | Will Davis | redraft #205 |
| 95 | Sam Montgomery | redraft #233 |
| 96 | Knile Davis | redraft #115 |
| 97 | Zaviar Gooden | redraft #168 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.