Arden Key
DE, LSU · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #87 (OAK)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 116 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~87%). Plus 4 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #123 (#10 at his position); he went #87, 36 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 120 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 24 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 25.2 |
| Defense | 114 tackles, 31 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 238 lbs |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 7.16 s |
| Shuttle | 4.25 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.5" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #123 overall (#10 DE) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 84 | Justin Jones | redraft #65 |
| 85 | Rashaan Gaulden | redraft #209 |
| 86 | Mark Andrews | redraft #17 |
| 88 | Oren Burks | redraft #106 |
| 89 | Joseph Noteboom | redraft #99 |
| 90 | Deadrin Senat | redraft #183 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.