Antonio Morrison
ILB, Florida · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #125 (IND)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
ILB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 47 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2018 (~98%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #229 (#18 at his position); he went #125, 104 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.76 40-yard dash at 232 lbs: faster than 18% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 47 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 13 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 13.0 |
| Passing | undefined/1, 0 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Defense | 124 tackles, 1 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 232 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.76 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.63" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #229 overall (#18 ILB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 122 | Andrew Billings | redraft #53 |
| 123 | Jerald Hawkins | redraft #183 |
| 124 | Deon Bush | redraft #135 |
| 126 | Demarcus Robinson | redraft #68 |
| 127 | Deiondre' Hall | redraft #194 |
| 128 | Evan Boehm | redraft #116 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.