Antonio Johnson
DT, Mississippi St. · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #152 (TEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #251 (#21 at his position); he went #152, 99 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Mississippi St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.15 40-yard dash at 310 lbs: faster than 13% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 83 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2013 (~74%). Last NFL season: 2013.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 83 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 21 |
| Defense | 97 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 310 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.15 s |
| Bench press | 28 reps |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 108" |
| 3-cone | 7.47 s |
| Shuttle | 4.49 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #251 overall (#21 DT) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 149 | Uche Nwaneri | redraft #38 |
| 150 | Josh Gattis | redraft #219 |
| 151 | Jeff Rowe | redraft #234 |
| 153 | Kevin Boss | redraft #80 |
| 154 | Clifton Ryan | redraft #97 |
| 155 | Dante Rosario | redraft #122 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.