Yao Ming
C · 2002 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #1 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #1 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#1).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.8 years old on draft night (born 1980-09-12).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
International prospect, born in Shanghai, China.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 41.7% of the time (151 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 486 games over 8 NBA seasons (~74% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 8 |
| Games | 486 |
| Minutes / game | 32.5 |
| Points / game | 19.0 |
| Rebounds / game | 9.2 |
| Assists / game | 1.6 |
| Win Shares (career) | 65.9 |
| VORP | 20.7 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 3.2 |
The 2002 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2002 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft International | 41.7% n=151 | |
| Position Center | 51.1% n=182 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 7' 5", 296 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 21.8 |
| Born | Shanghai, China |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #1 overall (#8 C) |
Picked around him 2002 redraft
| 2 | Jay Williams | redraft #35 |
| 3 | Mike Dunleavy | redraft #6 |
| 4 | Drew Gooden | redraft #10 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.