Xavier Tillman Sr.
C, Michigan State · 2020 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #35 (SAC)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #32 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#35).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.5 years old on draft night (born 1999-01-12).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Michigan State.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 290 games over 6 NBA seasons (~59% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 6 |
| Games | 290 |
| Minutes / game | 15.0 |
| Points / game | 4.9 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.5 |
| Assists / game | 1.1 |
| Win Shares (career) | 10.3 |
| VORP | 2.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -0.2 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Center | 51.1% n=182 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 8", 245 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 21.5 |
| Born | 1999-01-12 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #32 overall (#4 C) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 32 | Vernon Carey Jr. | redraft #43 |
| 33 | Daniel Oturu | redraft #42 |
| 34 | Théo Maledon | redraft #54 |
| 36 | Tyler Bey | redraft #48 |
| 37 | Vít Krejčí | redraft #30 |
| 38 | Saben Lee | redraft #32 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.