Vernon Carey Jr.
C, Duke · 2020 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #32 (CHO)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #43 (#8 at his position); he went #32, 11 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 37 games over 3 NBA seasons (~15% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Age
19.3 years old on draft night (born 2001-02-25).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Duke.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 3 |
| Games | 37 |
| Minutes / game | 5.1 |
| Points / game | 1.9 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.4 |
| Assists / game | 0.1 |
| Win Shares (career) | 0.2 |
| VORP | -0.2 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -6.3 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Center | 51.1% n=182 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 270 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 19.3 |
| Born | 2001-02-25 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #43 overall (#8 C) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 29 | Malachi Flynn | redraft #34 |
| 30 | Desmond Bane | redraft #4 |
| 31 | Tyrell Terry | redraft #50 |
| 33 | Daniel Oturu | redraft #42 |
| 34 | Théo Maledon | redraft #54 |
| 35 | Xavier Tillman Sr. | redraft #23 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.