Wesley Johnson
SF, Syracuse · 2010 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #4 (MIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #7 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#4).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23.0 years old on draft night (born 1987-07-11).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.6% of the time (138 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Syracuse.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 1" at 6' 8" tall (+5.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (135 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 609 games over 9 NBA seasons (~83% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 9 |
| Games | 609 |
| Minutes / game | 22.1 |
| Points / game | 7.0 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.2 |
| Assists / game | 1.1 |
| Win Shares (career) | 10.7 |
| VORP | 1.2 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.6 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 23 or older | 48.6% n=138 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +5 in. or more | 51.1% n=135 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 8", 206 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 1" |
| Age on draft night | 23.0 |
| Born | Corsicana, TX |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #7 overall (#2 SF) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 1 | John Wall | redraft #3 |
| 2 | Evan Turner | redraft #15 |
| 3 | Derrick Favors | redraft #5 |
| 5 | DeMarcus Cousins | redraft #4 |
| 6 | Ekpe Udoh | redraft #22 |
| 7 | Greg Monroe | redraft #8 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.