Tyler Herro
SG, Kentucky · 2019 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #13 (MIA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #15 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#13).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.4 years old on draft night (born 2000-01-20).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Kentucky.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 400 games over 8 NBA seasons (~61% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 8 |
| Games | 400 |
| Minutes / game | 32.5 |
| Points / game | 19.5 |
| Rebounds / game | 5.0 |
| Assists / game | 4.1 |
| Win Shares (career) | 22.9 |
| VORP | 9.2 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 0.8 |
| 2026-27 so far | 3 GP, 23.7 PPG (ESPN) |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 192 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 19.4 |
| Born | 2000-01-20 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #15 overall (#4 SG) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 10 | Cam Reddish | redraft #34 |
| 11 | Cameron Johnson | redraft #5 |
| 12 | P.J. Washington | redraft #16 |
| 14 | Romeo Langford | redraft #37 |
| 15 | Sekou Doumbouya | redraft #58 |
| 16 | Chuma Okeke | redraft #26 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.