Tommy Smith
PF, Arizona State · 2003 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #53 (CHI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #97 (#29 at his position); he went #53, 44 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Never played an NBA game.
- Age
22.6 years old on draft night (born 1980-12-04).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Arizona State.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 0 |
| Games | 0 |
The 2003 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2003 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 215 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.6 |
| Born | 1980-12-04 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #97 overall (#29 PF) |
Picked around him 2003 redraft
| 50 | Paccelis Morlende | redraft #53 |
| 51 | Kyle Korver | redraft #6 |
| 52 | Remon van de Hare | redraft #54 |
| 54 | Nedžad Sinanović | redraft #56 |
| 55 | Rick Rickert | redraft #57 |
| 56 | Brandon Hunter | redraft #37 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.