Thon Maker
PF · 2016 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #10 (MIL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: path to the draft. Details below.
- Path to the draft
International prospect, born in Sudan.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 41.7% of the time (151 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #19 (#9 at his position), close to where he went (#10).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.3 years old on draft night (born 1997-02-25).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 3" at 7' 1" tall (+2.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 263 games over 5 NBA seasons (~64% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 5 |
| Games | 263 |
| Minutes / game | 13.8 |
| Points / game | 4.6 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.8 |
| Assists / game | 0.6 |
| Win Shares (career) | 6.6 |
| VORP | -0.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -2.1 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Path to the draft International | 41.7% n=151 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 7' 1", 216 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 3" |
| Age on draft night | 19.3 |
| Born | Sudan |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #19 overall (#9 PF) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 7 | Jamal Murray | redraft #3 |
| 8 | Marquese Chriss | redraft #23 |
| 9 | Jakob Poeltl | redraft #6 |
| 11 | Domantas Sabonis | redraft #1 |
| 12 | Taurean Prince | redraft #16 |
| 13 | Georgios Papagiannis | redraft #36 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.