Taj Gibson
PF, USC · 2009 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #26 (CHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #29 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#26). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24.0 years old on draft night (born 1985-06-24).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.6% of the time (138 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at USC.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 1012 games over 17 NBA seasons (~73% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 17 |
| Games | 1012 |
| Minutes / game | 22.9 |
| Points / game | 8.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 5.7 |
| Assists / game | 0.9 |
| Win Shares (career) | 60.5 |
| VORP | 6.5 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -0.9 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 23 or older | 48.6% n=138 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 214 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 24.0 |
| Born | Brooklyn, N.Y. |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #29 overall (#5 PF) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 23 | Omri Casspi | redraft #22 |
| 24 | Byron Mullens | redraft #42 |
| 25 | Rodrigue Beaubois | redraft #30 |
| 27 | DeMarre Carroll | redraft #17 |
| 28 | Wayne Ellington | redraft #23 |
| 29 | Toney Douglas | redraft #28 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.