Sergio Llull

PG · 2009 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #34 (DEN)

Drafted#34DEN · 2009
Redraft rank#51of 60 picks
Typical redraft rank for pick #34~#362000–2021 median
VerdictBust · -15spots vs. typical

Why he went too high Patterns

Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, path to the draft, availability. Details below.

  • Pre-draft rankings

    ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #51 (#17 at his position); he went #34, 17 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Path to the draft

    International prospect, born in Spain.

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 41.7% of the time (151 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Availability

    Never played an NBA game.

  • Age

    21.6 years old on draft night (born 1987-11-15).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Position

    PG (ESPN draft listing).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.

Career numbers

Seasons0
Games0

The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft

111515303045456060Draft pick →Redraft rank (best at top)Blake Griffin: pick 1 → redraft 4Hasheem Thabeet: pick 2 → redraft 35James Harden: pick 3 → redraft 1Tyreke Evans: pick 4 → redraft 13Ricky Rubio: pick 5 → redraft 11Jonny Flynn: pick 6 → redraft 49Stephen Curry: pick 7 → redraft 2Jordan Hill: pick 8 → redraft 29DeMar DeRozan: pick 9 → redraft 3Brandon Jennings: pick 10 → redraft 14Terrence Williams: pick 11 → redraft 47Gerald Henderson: pick 12 → redraft 27Tyler Hansbrough: pick 13 → redraft 25Earl Clark: pick 14 → redraft 41Austin Daye: pick 15 → redraft 36James Johnson: pick 16 → redraft 16Jrue Holiday: pick 17 → redraft 5Ty Lawson: pick 18 → redraft 10Jeff Teague: pick 19 → redraft 7Eric Maynor: pick 20 → redraft 39Darren Collison: pick 21 → redraft 8Víctor Claver: pick 22 → redraft 43Omri Casspi: pick 23 → redraft 22Byron Mullens: pick 24 → redraft 42Rodrigue Beaubois: pick 25 → redraft 30Taj Gibson: pick 26 → redraft 9DeMarre Carroll: pick 27 → redraft 17Wayne Ellington: pick 28 → redraft 23Toney Douglas: pick 29 → redraft 28Christian Eyenga: pick 30 → redraft 48Jeff Ayres: pick 31 → redraft 31Jermaine Taylor: pick 32 → redraft 44Dante Cunningham: pick 33 → redraft 21DaJuan Summers: pick 35 → redraft 46Sam Young: pick 36 → redraft 34DeJuan Blair: pick 37 → redraft 24Jon Brockman: pick 38 → redraft 38Jonas Jerebko: pick 39 → redraft 20Derrick Brown: pick 40 → redraft 33Jodie Meeks: pick 41 → redraft 18Patrick Beverley: pick 42 → redraft 12Marcus Thornton: pick 43 → redraft 19Chase Budinger: pick 44 → redraft 26Nick Calathes: pick 45 → redraft 37Danny Green: pick 46 → redraft 6Henk Norel: pick 47 → redraft 52Taylor Griffin: pick 48 → redraft 50Sergiy Gladyr: pick 49 → redraft 53Goran Suton: pick 50 → redraft 54Jack McClinton: pick 51 → redraft 55A.J. Price: pick 52 → redraft 32Nando De Colo: pick 53 → redraft 40Robert Vaden: pick 54 → redraft 56Patty Mills: pick 55 → redraft 15Ahmad Nivins: pick 56 → redraft 57Emir Preldžić: pick 57 → redraft 58Lester Hudson: pick 58 → redraft 45Chinemelu Elonu: pick 59 → redraft 59Robert Dozier: pick 60 → redraft 60

Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.

How players like him did

Pre-draft rankings
Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank		33.8%
n=272
Path to the draft
International		41.7%
n=151
Age
21		47.6%
n=286
Position
Guard		48.9%
n=499

Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.

Measurables & pre-draft

Height / weight6' 3", 175 lbs
Age on draft night21.6
BornSpain
ESPN pre-draft rank#51 overall (#17 PG)

Picked around him 2009 redraft

31Jeff Ayresredraft #31
32Jermaine Taylorredraft #44
33Dante Cunninghamredraft #21
35DaJuan Summersredraft #46
36Sam Youngredraft #34
37DeJuan Blairredraft #24

How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.