Jeff Ayres
PF, Arizona State · 2009 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #31 (SAC)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #37 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#31).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.2 years old on draft night (born 1987-04-29).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Arizona State.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 237 games over 6 NBA seasons (~48% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 6 |
| Games | 237 |
| Minutes / game | 9.8 |
| Points / game | 2.9 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.7 |
| Assists / game | 0.4 |
| Win Shares (career) | 6.3 |
| VORP | -0.2 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -2.3 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 240 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.2 |
| Born | Etiwanda, Calif. |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #37 overall (#8 PF) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 28 | Wayne Ellington | redraft #23 |
| 29 | Toney Douglas | redraft #28 |
| 30 | Christian Eyenga | redraft #48 |
| 32 | Jermaine Taylor | redraft #44 |
| 33 | Dante Cunningham | redraft #21 |
| 34 | Sergio Llull | redraft #51 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.