Sergei Monia
SG · 2004 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #23 (POR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 26 games over 1 NBA season (~32% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #12 overall (#2 at his position), but he lasted until pick #23: teams let him slide 11 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.2 years old on draft night (born 1983-04-15).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 1 |
| Games | 26 |
| Minutes / game | 13.2 |
| Points / game | 3.0 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.0 |
| Assists / game | 0.7 |
| Win Shares (career) | -0.2 |
| VORP | -0.3 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -5.3 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 8", 220 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 21.2 |
| Born | 1983-04-15 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #12 overall (#2 SG) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 20 | Jameer Nelson | redraft #10 |
| 21 | Pavel Podkolzin | redraft #38 |
| 22 | Viktor Khryapa | redraft #28 |
| 24 | Delonte West | redraft #16 |
| 25 | Tony Allen | redraft #12 |
| 26 | Kevin Martin | redraft #7 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.