Kevin Martin
SG, Western Carolina University · 2004 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #26 (SAC)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #26 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#26). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.4 years old on draft night (born 1983-02-01).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Western Carolina University.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 714 games over 12 NBA seasons (~73% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 12 |
| Games | 714 |
| Minutes / game | 30.2 |
| Points / game | 17.4 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.2 |
| Assists / game | 1.9 |
| Win Shares (career) | 61.3 |
| VORP | 16.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 1.0 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 185 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 21.4 |
| Born | 1983-02-01 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #26 overall (#8 SG) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 23 | Sergei Monia | redraft #41 |
| 24 | Delonte West | redraft #16 |
| 25 | Tony Allen | redraft #12 |
| 27 | Sasha Vujačić | redraft #23 |
| 28 | Beno Udrih | redraft #18 |
| 29 | David Harrison | redraft #27 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.