Sasha Pavlović
SF · 2003 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #19 (UTA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #26 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#19).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.6 years old on draft night (born 1983-11-15).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 567 games over 10 NBA seasons (~69% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 10 |
| Games | 567 |
| Minutes / game | 15.7 |
| Points / game | 4.9 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.8 |
| Assists / game | 0.9 |
| Win Shares (career) | 7.0 |
| VORP | -3.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -3.4 |
The 2003 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2003 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 207 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 19.6 |
| Born | 1983-11-15 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #26 overall (#7 SF) |
Picked around him 2003 redraft
| 16 | Troy Bell | redraft #43 |
| 17 | Žarko Čabarkapa | redraft #36 |
| 18 | David West | redraft #5 |
| 20 | Dahntay Jones | redraft #30 |
| 21 | Boris Diaw | redraft #7 |
| 22 | Zoran Planinić | redraft #35 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.