Paul George
SF, Fresno State · 2010 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #10 (IND)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #6 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#10). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.2 years old on draft night (born 1990-05-02).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Fresno State.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 11" at 6' 9" tall (+2.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 947 games over 17 NBA seasons (~68% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 17 |
| Games | 947 |
| Minutes / game | 33.5 |
| Points / game | 20.5 |
| Rebounds / game | 6.2 |
| Assists / game | 3.7 |
| Win Shares (career) | 92.3 |
| VORP | 45.3 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 3.7 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 9", 214 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 11" |
| Age on draft night | 20.2 |
| Born | Lancaster, CA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #6 overall (#1 SF) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 7 | Greg Monroe | redraft #8 |
| 8 | Al-Farouq Aminu | redraft #11 |
| 9 | Gordon Hayward | redraft #2 |
| 11 | Cole Aldrich | redraft #19 |
| 12 | Xavier Henry | redraft #32 |
| 13 | Ed Davis | redraft #9 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.